Palladium is mined chiefly in Russia and South Africa, which together supplied about 79 per cent of primary production in 2025 on Johnson Matthey figures. Almost all of it arrives as a by-product of nickel or platinum-group mining rather than from mines seeking palladium itself. Secondary supply recovered from scrapped autocatalysts was about 32 per cent of total supply in 2025 and is forecast to rise, which makes recycling the most responsive part of the supply picture.
Palladium has an unusual profile among traded metals. Its demand is concentrated in one application to a degree almost nothing else matches, its primary supply comes from two countries, and it is hardly ever the reason a mine exists. Understanding it means understanding three separate decisions, none of which is about palladium.
Nearly four-fifths from two countries
On Johnson Matthey's 2025 figures, primary supply was 6,589 thousand ounces: Russia 2,950 thousand, South Africa 2,246 thousand, and 1,393 thousand from everywhere else. Russia and South Africa between them were close to 79 per cent, a calculation from those figures rather than a published share.
Johnson Matthey forecasts both falling in 2026, with primary supply at 6,032 thousand ounces. The Russian decline is the sharper one, and it is visible at the level of a single company.
It is a by-product of nickel
Norilsk Nickel, the largest single source, produced 2.73 million ounces of palladium in 2025, down 1 per cent, alongside 667 thousand ounces of platinum. Those metals come out of nickel mining. The company's guidance for 2026 is 2.42 to 2.47 million ounces, which Johnson Matthey characterises as a decline of 10 to 11 per cent; against the 2.73 million ounce figure above the guidance range works out slightly wider than that. Johnson Matthey records that as the lowest total since at least 2005, the first year the company was permitted to report platinum-group production at all.
The reason it gives is geological rather than commercial: a rising share of disseminated ore, which carries lower grades than the rich and cuprous ores of its underground operations. That is a mine plan working through its resource, not a response to anything happening in the palladium market.
North American supply is contracting for its own reasons. Output at the Stillwater operation in Montana fell by about a third in 2025 following rationalisation, and Impala Canada's Lac des Iles mine is nearing the end of its life, currently expected to close in the middle of 2027. Glencore's Raglan mine in northern Quebec, which works relatively palladium-rich nickel-copper ore, is the counterweight, and its Chernogorsky project could produce up to 500,000 ounces annually at full production.
The general point holds across all of them: palladium volumes are set by decisions about nickel, copper and platinum. A palladium shortage does not summon new palladium mines, because there are very few mines whose economics turn on it.
Trade routes have been redrawn
Russian palladium has been progressively excluded from the United States market. Imports ceased in August 2025. Anti-dumping duties were fixed at 133 per cent and a preliminary ruling set countervailing duties at 109 per cent, a combination Johnson Matthey describes as permanently excluding Russian palladium from that market. The petition was filed with the United States Department of Commerce by a producer and a trade union.
The metal has not stopped being produced; it has changed direction. Johnson Matthey records Russian palladium increasingly routed to China, much of it through Hong Kong and, since the middle of 2023, directly into Chinese bonded storage where it sits duty-free.
This is worth noting precisely because it is not a supply change. The same ounces are mined and refined; what changed is which market they reach and by what route.
The recycling loop, and why it lags
Because a catalyst is not consumed, the palladium fitted to a vehicle is still there when the vehicle is scrapped. Recovering it is the second supply stream, and it is now a substantial one: 3,135 thousand ounces in 2025, about 32 per cent of total supply, forecast to reach roughly 36 per cent in 2026.
Unlike mine supply, this stream responds to conditions, but on a long delay and through some unexpected channels.
The clearest example is what happened after the pandemic. Weak new-vehicle sales meant fewer one-to-three-year-old cars flowing onto the second-hand market years later, which pushed up used-car prices and kept older vehicles on the road longer. The result was unusually weak recycling volumes in Europe, North America and Japan across 2023 and 2024. A shortage of new cars in one year produced a shortage of scrapped cars several years afterwards.
Policy moves the flow too. China extended its autocatalyst recycling scheme for a further year and widened it to include vehicles registered before June 2012 meeting earlier emissions standards, lifting the number of Chinese vehicles being recycled by around a quarter in 2025. Recovery from autocatalyst scrap collected outside China rose 4 per cent.
There is also a behavioural layer at the bottom of the chain. Johnson Matthey notes that rising values encouraged small-scale collectors to release spent catalyst material they had been holding. Scrapped converters do not move through the system at a constant rate; they accumulate in sheds and yards and come out in waves.
In Japan the flow moves in the opposite direction: end-of-life vehicle dismantling continued to decline as older vehicles were exported to developing markets rather than recycled, exporting the future scrap along with the car.
Demand is one application
Johnson Matthey states plainly that the automotive sector accounts for more than 80 per cent of palladium demand. Total demand in 2025 was 10,140 thousand ounces, of which automotive was 8,227 thousand, industrial 1,448 thousand, investment 382 thousand and jewellery just 83 thousand.
The long-run pressure on that single application is electrification. The International Energy Agency recorded over 20 million electric cars sold globally in 2025, up 20 per cent and one in four new cars sold worldwide, with battery electric vehicles making up 65 per cent of electric car sales. China accounted for about 60 per cent of global electric vehicle sales.
A battery electric vehicle has no exhaust stream and no autocatalyst. Johnson Matthey forecasts Chinese light-duty battery electric production rising 16 per cent in 2026 to 37 per cent of that market, European output rising nearly 40 per cent, and North America contracting following the withdrawal of tax credits at the end of September 2025. Automotive platinum-group metal demand is forecast to fall 4 to 5 per cent in 2026, broadly in line with the fall in internal-combustion production.
That is erosion rather than collapse, and it arrives while secondary supply is still rising. Johnson Matthey forecasts both palladium and rhodium moving into small surplus in 2026 after years of deficit, with the swing coming from the recycling side rather than from mines.
Where to look next
- Palladium in Australian dollars - the reference price page for the metal.
- Platinum in Australian dollars - the metal on the other side of the autocatalyst substitution trade.
- Silver in Australian dollars - another metal whose supply is mostly a by-product of mining something else.
Sources
- Johnson Matthey, PGM Market Report May 2026 - palladium supply by country and secondary supply for 2024 to 2026, the demand split, the statement that automotive accounts for more than 80 per cent of demand, Norilsk Nickel's 2025 output and 2026 guidance and the disseminated-ore explanation, the North American mine positions including Stillwater, Lac des Iles, Onaping Depth and Raglan and the Chernogorsky project, the cessation of United States imports of Russian palladium and the duty rates, the redirection of Russian metal to China and its bonded storage, the Chinese recycling scheme extension and the quarter increase in vehicles recycled, the 4 per cent rise in scrap recovered outside China, the pandemic-era explanation for weak recycling in 2023 and 2024, the release of hoarded catalyst material, the decline in Japanese dismantling, the 2026 automotive and battery electric forecasts, and the forecast move into surplus
- Johnson Matthey, PGM Market Report May 2025 - the earlier-year series showing secondary supply rising each year while primary supply fell
- International Energy Agency, Global EV Outlook 2026: Trends in electric cars - over 20 million electric cars sold in 2025 and the 20 per cent increase, one in four new cars sold worldwide, battery electric vehicles at 65 per cent of electric car sales, and the regional shares for China, Europe and the United States
Not financial advice, and not a recommendation of any product or institution. Reviewed by the Tradergy editorial team, September 2026.
Common questions
Where does palladium come from?
Chiefly Russia and South Africa. On Johnson Matthey figures for 2025, Russia supplied 2,950 thousand ounces and South Africa 2,246 thousand out of total primary supply of 6,589 thousand, so the two together were close to 79 per cent. Everywhere else, including North America and Zimbabwe, made up the remaining 1,393 thousand ounces.
Is palladium mined on purpose?
Rarely on its own. Most palladium is recovered as a by-product of nickel mining or alongside other platinum-group metals. Norilsk Nickel, the largest single producer, reported 2.73 million ounces of palladium in 2025 as a by-product of its nickel operations, and disclosed that a rising share of lower-grade disseminated ore is reducing output.
What is palladium used for?
Almost entirely autocatalysts. Johnson Matthey states that the automotive sector accounts for more than 80 per cent of palladium demand. The remainder is mostly industrial, chiefly electronics and chemical applications, with investment at 382 thousand ounces and jewellery a very small category at 83 thousand in 2025.
How much palladium is recycled?
Secondary supply was 3,135 thousand ounces in 2025 against total supply of 9,724 thousand, so about 32 per cent, and it is forecast to reach roughly 36 per cent in 2026. Almost all of it is recovered from autocatalysts in scrapped vehicles, which is possible because the metal is a catalyst and is not consumed in use.
Will electric vehicles end palladium demand?
They reduce it, because a battery electric vehicle has no exhaust and therefore no autocatalyst. The International Energy Agency reported over 20 million electric cars sold globally in 2025, one in four new cars. Johnson Matthey forecasts automotive platinum-group metal demand falling 4 to 5 per cent in 2026, broadly in line with the fall in internal-combustion production, so the effect is a steady erosion rather than a cliff.